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 October Review : We came out  with a very small profit with the Premium Tips and a very small loss on the Lays

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Todays FREE tips wording2

It could be Dubai's Day in the 2.10

Today's fortune for a fiver 

50p ew trixie & 50p ew treble 

Sarvi 1.00 @ 11/2

Dubai Days 2.10 @ 8/1

Mellow Ben 2.55 @ 7/1

 

Selected Ayr – good to soft on this flat and galloping track

1.00This has a most winnable look to it as both market leaders don’t hit the mark on paper . The ex-Irish Barney Stimpson has joined a stable with a poor record with new intakes and would prefer a longer trip and deeper ground while Hidden Commander continues to underperform . Sarvi is well capable of landing this . On a good mark and a win and a good 2nd recently makes him arguably the form horse .

½ pt  win Sarvi @ 11/2

 

1.35 PREMIUM RACE

 

2.10 The fav is the prolific Dreams of Home, whose bubble burst last time out at Carlisle in  the mud , which should have provided optimum conditions , but went out tamely and unlikely that stamina was the issue for this former successful pointer and today’s drying ground wont help . The trip looks on the sharp side for both Kalaharry and Bollingerandkrug but everything looks in place for a big run from the prolific Dubai Days. 3 times a winner last season , ending with a victory over C&D, over hurdles ,  off this mark when as usual held for a late charge and had Fete Champetre 6 lengths behind and worse off at the weights today . His recent comeback spin was encouraging enough, first time over fences and with a good pace assured , this could be run to suit this late player .

½ pt  win Dubai Days @ 8/1

 

2.45 Be The difference is the odds on fav after this youngster’s facile win her last time out and the longer trip is very much expected to help , but we’ll have to wait and see and the 7 pound hit is pretty severe . Manetti drops in grade and ran his best race for some time when 2nd over C&D off this mark, making him an ew bet for nothing.

½ pt  ew  Manetti @ 9/2

 

3.15 The front running Ardera Cross is a 4 time track winner and has dropped to a very good mark and was winning off marks 20 pounds higher earlier in the season. Could take some catching .

½ pt win Ardera Cross @ 9/4

 

Ayr Placepot

11,12

7

5,8

3,6

1

6,8

16 bets

 

Selected Kempton – good ground on this flat and sharp track

1.50 The Willie Mullins trained My Sister Sarah crosses The Irish Sea for this mares Class 1 hurdle and is certainly the one to beat at the ratings , but recent runs not overly encouraging And clear preference is for the late playing and prolific Dragon Bones , who will be suited by the ground and this speedy C&D .

½ pt win Dragon Bones @ 9/4

 

2,25 Vision De Flos had excuses last time when upped markedly in trip and this front runner is still feasibly handicapped and this C&D likely to suit . They wont be hanging around in this as Course specialist Mercian Prince is sure to be front rank too and despite a small nudge up the weights for his gallant track win last time, has to be considered . The nod goes to another prominent racer in Gortroe Joe, who is the best handicapped of this trio , but like the other pair can go a strong gallop and keep it going throughout .

¼ pt win Gortroe Joe @ 5/2

 

2.55 All of Khan , Inca Rose , Not At Present and Neverbeen to Paris are in top form and young enough to handle their present stiff marks but Mellow Ben has showed signs of a recovery of late and is very well handicapped switching to hurdles .

½ pt win Mellow Ben @ 7/1

 

3.25 See the sea has front run  his way to a hat-trick and despite being a hefty 7 pounds higher ,  is not out of this , especially as he’s likely to have the lead to himself . The novice Paso Doble has clear claims off a manageable mark after being outclassed in a Grade 2 last time, but ran well for a long way , was pretty strong in the market and the switch to this C&D helps. The late playing Just The Man has done well since handicapping and not out of this but the nod goes to Timberman after a fine run  on his comeback spin when a close 3rd at Cheltenham , and potent on speed tracks

¼ pt win Timberman @ 11/4

Kempton placepot

1,3

1,2,3

2

1,3

1

2,4

24 bets

 

 

Selected Ludlow – good ground on this flat and sharp track

2.00 PREMIUM RACE

 

2.35 This looks good for the in form useful chaser Bathiva as only serious rival , Magic Dancer is now on a very stiff mark and will be tested by the drying ground .

½ pt  win Bathiva @ 6/5

 

3.05 An unappealing contest with few coming into it in encouraging form but worth a try on the well handicapped and downgraded Staple Head , if he can put a couple of lesser efforts behind .

¼ pt win Staple Head @ 5/1

 

3.35 Orchard Grove goes for the 4 timer and is certainly not out of this despite the 7 pound hit but another prolific sort in Sergeant, had his winning spree come to a halt last time when 2nd and a further five pounds higher today , so not for me . Youngster Fred Bear did very well finishing 3rd in an open age  handicap last time , off around this mark and this enthusiastic front runner could take a bit of catching .

¼ pt  ew  Fred Bear @ 13/2

 

Ludlow placepot

4

1

3,10

1

1,2,6

1,5,9

18 bets

 

Selected Chelmsford City – all weather – polytrack

4.30 PREMIUM RACE

 

5.00 The fav is arguably the form horse Atalanta Breeze , but a trio of important questions to answer off a stiff looking mark, up in trip and switches from tapeta. Socially Shady is rarely far away , stays the trip well and is on a workable mark and chanced switching to the all weather.

¼ pt win Secretly Shady @ 9/2

 

5.30 The bookies look to have this right making it a two way war between Regional and Above and it’s so hard finding the one who has the edge . At the odds, happy to watch .

No Bet

 

6.00 The fav in Big Bard has a lot of his plate with a monstrous 12 pound penalty and also racing from the worst of the draw.  Follow your Heart ran some tidy races for Kevin Ryan off higher marks and shaped up pretty well for new trainer Simon Hodgson , who does well with new intakes , at Kempton from a poor draw . Has the best of the draw tonight in this modest heat.

½ pt win Follow Your Heart @ 7/2

 

6.30 Cometh the Man is rarely far away but many supporters have said enough is enough as he is now 0 from 18 and despite a good draw, workable mark and proven over C&d, his odds of 6/4 wont get their cash back and is certainly not one for a hefty punt . The front running Lethal Angel is also well drawn , is ridden by an accomplished 7 pound claimer has a C&D win in his CV off a 5 pound higher mark and no issue returning from a break . Worth a dabble in quite an open heat . All of Hope Springs, Shanghai Rock and Toplight demand careful consideration .

¼ pt  win Lethal Angel @ 5/1

 

Chelmsford City placepot

1,5

4,7

6

2,3

6

3,4

16 bets

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