Expecting an Outstanding October

 

 We were going along very nicely thank you until the final week , where there were a number of

disappointing or unlucky runs and after looking as if we were coasting to a tidy monthly profit , 

in the end we came out with just a tiny profit for The Premium Tip and a small loss for the lays .

On a more positive note , the Premium tip Multis again came in with a terrific £300 profit , ROI 53% 

and the free tip singles also finished with a healthy 30pts profit 

 

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Todays FREE tips wording2

She has the Flair to land the 2.55

Today’s Multi

3 £1 doubles &£2 treble

Pagan 2.35 @ 9/4

Creative Flair 2.55 @ 2/1

Wink of an Eye 8.30 @ 11/10

 

Selected Nottingham – good to firm on this mostly flat and galloping track , speed track

1.00The short priced fav is Love De Vega , 2nd in both starts but quick ground could be an issue and been off the track for a worrying 6 weeks , but comfortably brings the best form to the table . The Godolphin newcomer King’s Guard could have a more positive jockey booking so worth a dabble on Roccozaam , who was supported on debut but ran  just OK but Daryll Holland has made a good start to his training career and worth a try .

¼ pt win Roccozaam @ 9/1

 

2.10 This is very winnable with the runners either better on softer ground , the all weather or at shorter trips. The fav is the very hard  to win with Didtheyleaveuoutto and there could be a mini shock in this with Major Snugfit a winner off this mark last year and this hurdler should have the stamina on this easy track and could get a soft lead .

½ pt win Major Snugfit @ 12/1

 

2.45 PREMIUM RACE

 

3.20 Refuge is 0 from 4 at this trip  and Soyonique is an all weather specialist and the rest make little appeal .

No Bet

 

3.55 PREMIUM RACE

 

4.30 An uncompetitive handicap and worth trying recent easy Brighton winner Jewel In My crown , who’s bred to appreciate this longer trip .

½ pt win Jewel In My Crown @ 9/4

 

5.00 ALL of these are having a hard time getting their noses in front but the capable Junoesque has been going the closest and this could be her day.

1/4 pt win Junoesque @ 4/1

 

Nottingham placepot

3,4

Fav

2,3

3,4

4,7

Fav

16 bets

 

Selected Newbury – good to firm on this flat and galloping track.

1.15 Bethersden Boy won well on debut but it was at Newmarket in the mud so a bit to prove especially with a penalty . Sovereign Prince was 4 lengths behind that day so another with a bit to prove with today’s conditions . Gaius did well on debut when 2nd and the 3rd horse has won since , albeit just an Ok maiden . The C&d should be fine as will the ground and gets the nod. Great Max cost a right old wedge and runs for a stable capable of getting them ready first time .

¼ pt win Gaius @ 3/1

 

1,45 The clear form horse is Seattle Rock , who mixes it with very hot company but this hold up filly has yet to strike . this is unlikely to be strongly raced but her class should finally get her home .

1/ 4 pt  win  Seattle Rock @ 2/1

 

2.55 The lightly raced Godolphin filly Creative Flair did very well last time in a Listed race at York, when making the running and just being done for toe . Expect another prominent ride and the first time hood and longer trip are both positives .

¾ pt win Creative Flair @ 2/1

 

3.30 A winnable race and the likely winner is C&D specialist Gin Palace , now back on a good mark , but 11/8 too short for me .

No Bet

 

4.05 This looks highly winnable but nothing is really proven on the ground and trip so happy to let it go.

No Bet

 

4.40 PREMIUM RACE

 

Newbury placepot

5

6

2.7

3

1,3

6,7,9

12 bets

 

Selected Yarmouth – good to firm on this flat and galloping track

1.25 Berrtie absolutely zipped in on his handicap debut at Chelmsford City and the 6 pound penalty is far less of a worry than the switch to quick turf and the other form horses in Priscilla’s Wish and Admirable Lad are also unproven on the going .

No Bet

 

2.00 A very weak low grade sprint and the form horse is Thomas Daniell , who is hard to win with so at the odds I can pass.

No Bet

 

2.35 Pagan ran a cracker last time coming off the pace to be 2nd in a Donny maiden on this kind of ground and the winner has done well since . This wont take much winning .

½ pt win Pagan @ 9/4

 

3.10 No stopping Celestial Point and he goes for the hat-trick on the back of two easy wins on this kind of ground and looks the likely winner, but I can pass at short odds.

No Bet

 

3.45 The consistent Aria Rose is certainly high enough in the weights but runs this C&D well on the ground and can exploit rivals who look vulnerable on form and the ground .

¼ pt win Aria Rose @ 5/2

 

4.20 Mr excellency made a bold bid at Redcar in quite a good race from the front but was beaten narrowly and was unsuited to Newmarket last time.  He’ll try and go all the way today but may have company from the hat-trick seeking Ariel , a facile winner last time but goes up in grade ??

No bet

 

Yarmouth placepot

1

3,5

3

1

5

1,5

4 bets

 

Selected Uttoxeter – good ground on this undulating and quite sharp track with a long and galloping straight .

5.40 The odds on fav is the clear form horse in Barely Famous In this modest novice hurdle , but she is dropping in trip and trying quicker ground , but hard to see who can beat her .

 

6.10 A big field for this mares’ staying hurdle and the clear form horse is hat-trick seeking Our rockstar but the longer trip and quicker ground are more concerns than the 4 pound hit . Dorette is a long standing maiden but it looked as her turn had finally come over C&D in September on similar ground when as usual held up and moved smoothly into the lead at the last only to take an unlucky fall . She’s on the same mark today and recent comeback spins have been Ok .

¼ pt  ew Dorette @ 10/1

 

6.40 Very tricky with both of the form horses in stop Talking and Dogs of War going up appreciably in  trip and No No Maestro has stamina assured but on a long losing run .

No Bet

 

7.10 This is only between the trio of Ambassador , whose last run wasn’t his best , but the gallop was steady, the consistent Olympic Conqueror , who may find the ground a bit lively so preference for Edinburgh Castle , rated a decent 77 on the flat and a respectable recent debut on ground a bit too soft .

¼ pt win Edinburgh Castle @ 3/1

 

7.40 Looks a match between C&d winner Yccs Portocervo , who returns from a 6 months break and no good record running well fresh so it could open the door for the consistent Armattiekan, who should have done a bit better last time but maybe the soft ground was the culprit . No ground excuses tonight.

¼ pt  win Armattiekan @ 9/4

 

8.10 The fav is Collnacritta who defied a long absence and long odds to win well at Hexham but you have to fear for his chances of the double up in trip and the ratings , on a speed track and of course the bounce factor second run back from a long break . This is very much about quantity than quality with it hard finding much with even a squeak . Alramz started his career with top flat trainer John Gosden , but didn’t last very long and is only moderate but shaped up well 2nd here last time and worth chancing on slightly quicker ground and up in trip .

¼ pt  ew Alramz @ 9/1

 

Uttoxeter placepot

6

12,14

2,4

1,2

5

11,19

16 bets

 

Selected Haydock – good to firm on this flat and galloping track

6.00 Sophie’s Star brings the best form to the table and Devious Angel is not far behind , but both have it to prove on quick turf . The short priced fav is Tardis , a beaten fav on quick ground at Yarmouth on debut but shaped really well and should find compensation here .

½ pt  win Tardis @ 6/5

 

6.30 A competitive sprint handicap and the clear fav is recent Ponty winner Ventura express but I’m happy to take him on as this track is so different from the very stiff Ponty circuit and also has a stiff 5 pound penalty . Mark’s Choice takes a drop in grade but the drop in trip is no help , especially on quick turf . Fox Hill bounced back to form last time and still well handicapped on last season’s form and likely to be front rank throughout along with veteran Secretsinthepark, a good winner last time but this looks deeper . The likely strong pace will help the strong finishing Dark Shot, who’s rarely far away  and nice odds for his chance.

¼ pt  ew Dark Shot @ 11/1

 

7.00 There wasn’t much between I’m A  Gambler and King Of Gold at Yarmouth when both made their debuts but it was on softer ground and on breeding the former should handle the ground better .

¼ pt  win I’m A Gambler @ 9/4

 

7.30 Hard to fancy many here with Caradoc dropping appreciably in trip and not going at all well when last seen and both Young Fire and Willie John are struggling for any kind of form at all . The fav is the consistent Thibaan but the 5 pound hit wont help at all. The poorly handicapped Poet’s Dawn is sure to make the running but his happy hunting ground is the very stiff Beverley , so could struggle for pace late on . Idoapologise comes here on the back of a very narrow defeat at this trip and ground at Ayr, coming from way back and should get a good pace to chase in this winnable heat .

1/2pt win Idoapologise @ 5/2

 

8.00 This looks there for the taking with the consistent Precision Storm nudged up the weights again and a bit to prove on this speed track while Toro dorado , Richard RHB and Estate House more potent on the all weather . Majalaat has been going well of late and this front runner was a close 2nd on the Newcastle tapeta before landing a fast ground handicap at Ponty and last time, the young jockey went off far too quickly back at Newcastle . He has his first run for Rebecca Menzies, who does Ok with new intakes and will have to  be caught. Cote D’Azur is consistent and the longer trip could help but hasn’t won for 3 years !  

¼ pt  ew  Majalaat @ 8/1

 

8.30 Not a deep race at all and despite being 3 pounds higher for a good 2nd on quick ground at Goodwood, Her Majesty’s Wink Of an eye should be landing this comfortably .

½ p t  win Wink of An Eye @ 11/10

 

9.00 The rise in the weights and the switch to quicker grounds are both issues for the form horses in Il Bandito and Action Hero and I’m happy to let this one go .

No Bet

Haydock placepot

4.5

4,6

2,5

6

2,3

3

16 bets

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