Expecting an Outstanding October

 

 We were going along very nicely thank you until the final week , where there were a number of

disappointing or unlucky runs and after looking as if we were coasting to a tidy monthly profit , 

in the end we came out with just a tiny profit for The Premium Tip and a small loss for the lays .

On a more positive note , the Premium tip Multis again came in with a terrific £300 profit , ROI 53% 

and the free tip singles also finished with a healthy 30pts profit 

 

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running big races at big odds 

 

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Extra £1 win doubles

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races, and as many of my tips are ew , it make sense to include these concessions as part of the stats . I will in future 

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Todays FREE tips wording2

Stick By(zantine) Empire in the 1.45

 Today's Multi 

3 £1 doubles & £1 ew treble

Byzantine Empire 1.45 @ 2/1

Floral Banquet 2.50 @ 3/1

Hachert 8.20 @ 2/1

 

Selected Southwell – good ground on this flat and sharp track

1.00Not a deep race and the fav is Sir Tivo an easy winner of a modest heat last time and will find this tougher with the 7 pound hit . Shady Character was a good winner of a competitive heat at Worcester on easy ground and despite being a course winner on good ground , that was over a longer trip , but still looks the best option .

½ pt win Shady Character @ 7/2

 

1.30 The likeable No Anxiety just got the better of Drakes Well at Uttoxeter , but over further and both are much higher In the ratings. Drakes Well is likely to try and make all but I prefer Siannes Star , who won as he liked last time winning here on good ground and despite the 6 pound hit and the longer trip , could have too much pace for his rivals .

½ pt win Siannes Star @ 9/4

 

2.40 The fav is Wicked West , a easy winner last time but carries a penalty and a previous run here wasn’t great . Trouble Shooter was only modest on the flat but tends to run his race and did so in his hurdles debut recently over C&D when not far being some decent types.

¼ pt  ew Trouble Shooter @ 9/1

 

3.10 Just Once is banging on the door and it may well open today . No issues with mark , trip , track or ground and this willing type could finally nab a deserved win in quite a winnable heat .

½ pt  win Just Once @ 5/1

 

4.45 PREMIUM RACE

 

Southwell placepot

4

1,3

1,3

6,8

5

2,6

16 bets

 

Selected Newton Abbot – good to soft on this flat and sharp track but further rain forecast and it could well go softer .

1.15 PREMIUM RACE

 

1.45 Byzantium empire was with John Gosden on the flat , rated an Ok 74 and comes here on the back of a good win in novice company beating one who landed a competitive event next time. That was  on easy ground and is much preferred to the capable Celestial Force who disappointed badly on easy ground last time .

¾ pt win  Byzantine Empire @2/1

 

2.50 Floral Banquet comes here on a hat-trick but switches to hurdles , which wont be an issue as neither will easy ground or the longer trip . She’s impressed with her attitude of late and the hat-trick beckons .

½ pt  win Floral Banquet @ 3/1

 

3.20 Ballyegan Hero will enjoy the soft ground and this bold front runner could take some catching around this sharp track in a winnable heat .

¼ pt win Ballyegan Hero @ 4/1

 

Newton Abbot placepot

3,6

5

1,3

3

3,5

4,5

16 bets

 

Selected Chepstow- good to firm on this undulating , galloping and quite stiff track

1.55 This looks well winnable as Big Little Lie has a stiff penalty for a win at Brighton and goes up in trip on this much stiffer track. Her way did better last time but did have the run of the race up front off a steady gallop and remains unconvincing . It’s rare seeing a Shadwell horse on a mark of just 57 but that’s what Monjazzat’s been allocated and he has been running in some pretty hot maidens. Worth a play , could sluice in or bomb out, it’s one of them.

½ pt win monjazaat @ 6/1

 

3.30 A competitive low grade handicap and the consistent yet luckless Accrington Stanley goes up in trip in search of that elusive first win , which is a good enough  reason for looking elsewhere . Don’t Look Back, Crema Inglesa and Monsieur Fantasie all have clear claims but I’m with a lively longshot in Luxy Lou, not disgraced in ant runs this season, down to a good mark and ground / C&D likely to suit.

¼ pt  ew  Luxy Lou @ 14/1

 

4.00 The short list is just too long

No Bet

 

4.30 Tawaafoq has a fine record here and despite being a bit high in the weights and with the ground quick enough , could get away with it in a winnable heat.  Atty’s Edge is rarely far away but the extra furlong could well test .

¼ pt  win Tawaafoq @ 11/2

 

5.00 PREMIUM RACE

 

5.30 An open finale and Ghepardo would do well to confirm placings with Our Man in Havana , on recent C&D form but neither may get to the front running aquadabra , who goes well here on quick ground and could get reward for some good runs in defeat .

¼ pt win Aquadabra @ 4/1

 

Chepstow placepot

1,4

3

7

5,10

2,14

5,11

16 bets

Selected Wolver – all weather – tapeta

5.50 There’s a short priced  fav in the improving Yagood , a good winner on  turf over further and before that was an easy winner here over shorter , so this interim trip wont be an issue and in this amateur riders’ race he has one of the best around on his back in Simon Walker .He’s 4 pounds higher , but is looking ahead of the game , but there are some alternatives at good odds. Affair ran well over C&D a few starts back behind a couple who have done well since and a reproduction gives him a squeak at long odds. The back to form Master Grey will also have strong handling in Pat Millman but has a rare try on synthetics . Quick Waltz also has a fine rider in Serena Brotherton but the longer trip is an issue as is the surface .

¼ pt   ew Affair @ 16/1

 

6.20. Not a deep race and the fav is recent easy turf winner Fircombe Hall , but a 6 pound hit wont help and while effective on  the surface, he’s struggled in both tries here. Nacho has run well here the last two runs off this mark and is tried going up in trip . Admirable Lad is very consistent and runs the C&d well but now on a testing mark .

¼ pt  ew Nacho @ 15/2

 

6.50 Mercurial is the short priced fav and brings good form to the table , but new to the surface and carries the dreaded penalty and the same can be said about Beauzon , whose best form is good enough to feature but last few runs were steps backwards. Sidcote Swallow certainly outran his 50/1 odds over C&D on debut , splitting a pair of reliable yardsticks with Fiji Gold just behind and can confirm  the form from the best of the draw.

¼ pt win Sidcote Swallow @ 5/1

 

7.20 There’s plenty of early pace in  this with C&d winner Atiyah , who is holding her form well, the poorly handicapped Red Walls , another track winner in Brazen  Belle , who could struggle with the drop in trip and the poorly drawn course winner Cuban Breeze going hell for leather to claim early domination , which is unlikely to do their cause any good and will help those more patiently ridden . The prolific Hotalena likes to come off a strong pace but her progress has come on turf and now on a very testing mark, so would do well to feature so the nod goes to the lightly raced Rockett Man , a close 3rd over C&D off a much higher mark and comes well off the pace .

¼ pt win Rockett Man @ 6/1

 

8.20 Hachert won  very well over C&d last time , with the front pair a long looking 7 lengths ahead of anything else . The 3 pound hit looks well within range and from a good draw, likely to stalk the pace before asserting for the double .

¾ pt win Hatchert @ 2/1

 

8.50 PREMIUM  RACE

 

Wolver placepot

7,12

3,6

6,7

6,8

1

7

16 bets  

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