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 October Review : We came out  with a very small profit with the Premium Tips and a very small loss on the Lays

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Todays FREE tips wording2

We'll be Happy when Sleepy does the biz in the 3.15

 Today's Trixie 

3 £1 doubles & £1 ew treble 

Not so Sleepy 3.15 @ 5/1

Whatwouldyouknow 6.00 @ 7/1

Urban Beat 7.15 @ 6/1

Selected Donny – soft ground on this flat and galloping track

1.00A very tricky nursery but today could be the day Baikal starts paying off his £325,000 price tag going handicapping for the first time and longer trip, softer ground and losing his undercarriage ! all helpful .

¼ pt  win Baikal @ 9/2

 

2.40 I was firmly with Air Raid last time at Haydock after a very much back to form effort in a big field at York when 3rd and this prominent racer , as usual , tried all the way , but was picked up quite cosily by CHairmanoftheboard , who is 4 pounds worse off for the length victory , but Air Raid has unaccountably flopped both times here and this race may come too soon for a horse who has to be wrapped in cotton wool. With a strong pace likely and Will Buick keeping the ride , the double could be on .

¼ pt  win CHairmanoftheboard @ 7/2 

 

3.15 The short priced fav is the useful and in form Favourite Moon , but he’s now on a stiff mark and clear preference for the very useful dual purpose horse Not So Sleepy , whose CV is full of big runs in big field handicaps off around this mark and soft ground suits well . He’s also a top notch hurdler , rated 155 in that sphere , which gives him a bit of wiggle room off his mark of 99 . I would love to see regular rider Graham Lee making this a true test of stamina by going out hard , which is likely with nothing else with a History of pacesetting . Could be very hard to catch .

¾ pt  win Not So Sleepy @ 5/1

 

3.50 A very winnable event and the nod goes to Eikomix, proven on the ground , stays the trip and on a fair mark in his first handicap.

¼ pt  win Eikomix @ 3/1

 

4.25 Hard to get excited about many in this field with their current poor form and fortunes unlikely to change on soft ground . Kentucky Kitten was given an easy lead last time , which is unlikely today and has a 6 pound hit to cope with as well as softer ground and  a quicker track .The Nu Form Way is only 1 pound higher for a tenacious win at Nottingham at this trip in the mud and is chanced going up slightly in grade.

¼ pt  win The Nu Form Way @ 4/1

 

4.55 Two Brothers is really far away and comes here on the back of a narrow defeat at Chester in the mud at this trio behind a decent type, but up 3 pounds and first time cheekpieces not a positive for the stable but still preferred in a winnable heat with Will Buick up .

¼ pt win Two Brothers @ 6/1

 

Donny placepot

2,6

7,10

3,15

3

2

4,6

16 bets

Selected Newbury – heavy ground on this flat and galloping track

1.38 Roger Charlton can certainly ready a 2yo for a debut win and runs the very well bred Ave Maria , who cost a cool £310,000 and the sire is a huge influence for soft ground .

¼ pt  win  Ave Maria @ 4/1

 

3.23 PREMIUM RACE

 

3.58 PREMIUM RACE

 

4.30 PREMIUM RACE

 

5.00 I was initially drawn to the mud loving Rolfe Rembrandt who recently returned to action with a cracking 2nd in the Salisbury mud , but there is little early pace in this which wont help this late player , who could be caught out wide too . The veteran Louie De palma has responded very well to the significant ease in the ratings with an out of the blue all the way win at Windsor and followed that up with a creditable close 3rd at Ascot off this mark. He’s one of the very few prominent racers in the field, in just 2 runs in the mud has a win and a place and Adam Kirby knows the old guy really well . Lively longshot .

½ pt  ew  Louis De Palme @ 16/1

 

5.35 I was very interested at first in the bang in form mud loving Tin Fandango , with the trip and mark both fine , but it’s a hands and heels race for apprentice jockeys , and most of the riders are still learning and few have a good record and with an inexperienced rider aboard , just having a dabble .

¼ pt win Tin Fandango @ 6/1

 

Newbury placepot

4,12

3

3

3,5

7,8

7,11,13

24 bets

 

Selected Cheltenham – good ground on this undulating , stiff and galloping track

1.55 Camprond was ultra impressive when winning The Persian War at Chepstow, waiting off a strong pace, and while he clearly brings the best form to the table, this could be tactical and the Irish raider Mars Harper isn’t short of pace .

No Bet

 

2.30 The prolific and progressive front running Sir Tivo is just way out of his depth in this competitive Class 2 chase . but his presence will have a bearing as the useful Fidelio Vallis , also likes to front run , so not an ideal race make up , and has a stiff penalty to carry , Any News is proven here and did well on his chase debut at Warwick, which takes a bit of jumping , and ran to a good level .

¼ pt  win Any News @ 11/4

 

3.05 With so many in form and progressive young staying hurdlers , and most running to a similar level , the only cert here is that it will be run at a ferocious pace , which will suit the ones ridden patiently , and the 4 timer seeking Dragon Bones has been winning as he pleases and gets the vote .

¼ pt win Dragon Bones @ 7/2

No Bet

3.40 A very tricky handicap chase for novices and the three with experience are hard to split and the two chasing newcomers in Danny Kirwan and Torn and Frayed have good hurdles form in the book and likely to take to fences . I’m going to enjoy watching the spectacle .

No Bet

 

4.15 PREMIUM RACE

 

4.50 A massive field for this race for amateur riders and significantly and significantly top Irish amateur Derek O’Connor has travelled over for the ride on the well handicapped Marques Of Carabas , who returns from a very lengthy 2 and a half year absence but is now with the good stable of Fergal O’Brien , but even with these positives , I’d rather look elsewhere . Bermeo won this last year first time back off a much lower mark , but held his form well off stiffer marks throughout the season. He’s switched stables and has been shoved up a few more pounds , but still looks a nice longshot as in 3 runs here , has yet to miss the frame .

¼ pt   ew  Bermeo @ 12/1

 

5.25 The short priced fav is Go Dante who was heavily backed on debut in a soft ground Wincanton bumper and won impressively but is short enough in the odds for a hurdling newcomer over a very different kind of track and quicker ground. Cardano is an in form 96 rated flat horse with a good win record . Could surprise at long odds .

1/2pt  win Cardano @ 12/1

 

Cheltenham placepot

1,2

3

5

1,3

1,8

1,2,5

24 bets

 

Selected Dundalk – all weather – polytrack

4.45 On official ratings there are a half of a dozen with claims, but the only one running close to their mar is the in form and very reliable Sister Lola, who comes here on the back of a big run when a good 2nd over C&D off a mark of 77 . She should win with ease .

¾ pt win Sister Lola @ evens

 

5.15 Skontonovski is a bit of an all or nothing merchant , but is 2 from 2 here , both times winning with ease and doubt the 7 pound hit will stop in a modest heat .

½ pt win Skontonovski @ 4/1

 

5.45 Despite the poor draw worth a play on the well handicapped Broker’s Tip after a close 4th over C&D last time out and off this mark .

¼ pt  ew Broker’s Tip @ 11/1

 

6.15 Tai Sing Yeh runs this track very well , but is now a little high in the weights but the drop in trip could see him back in The Winner’s Circle as he shows stacks of early pace and can overcome a wide draw .

¼ pt  win Tai Sing Yeh @ 15/2

 

7.15 A very competitive good quality and valuable Group 3 sprint and with a stack of early pace , mostly coming from unlikely winners in Stormy Girl and Strong Johnson , the strong pace will really suit last year’s win Urban Beat , who comes into this in very good form . All of Harry’s Bar , Master Matt , The Highway Rat and the 3 English raiders in May Sonic , Dandalla  and Lady In France are all useful types with solid chances on their ratings and most proven here , but it’s the double for me .

½ pt  ew  Urban Beat @ 6/1

 

Dundalk placepot

1

1

1,8

4,6

1,2

1,6

16 bets

 

Selected Newcastle – all weather – tapeta – the track is stiff and galloping

5.30 The bang in form Major Snugfit toughed  it out really well here last time but the longer trip and the 4 pound hit are severe obstacles . The useful jumper One Night In Milan has taken advantage of a very lenient flat handicap mark winning well in the Ayr mud last time , but a stiff penalty and the switch to tapeta both worries . Victoriano doesn’t win many but is rarely far away and comes here on the back of a big run  over C&D when a close 3rd in a big field off this mark . Could be her day at juicy odds .

½ pt   ew  Victoriano @ 11/1

 

6.00 Whatwouldyouknow is holding his form very well and ran a cracker over C&D last time in a competitive higher grade race finishing 3rd behind a couple of useful yardsticks . He’s one of the few prominent racers in the field and could well notch another win .

½ pt  ew  Whatwouldyouknow @ 7/1

 

7.00 Full marks to the very much in form Pocket The profit , who has won his last 4 races with ease , taking his winning mark from a lowly 54 to a decent 71 and now on a mark of 77 , and as he just keeps finding more  couldn’t disagree with the bookies making him a short priced fav but the in form front running Brazen Akoya has a massive pull of 21 pounds with the fav when quite a distant 2nd at Wolver. Likely to have the front to himself and if the fav has reached his ceiling , this is the one most likely .

¼ pt  ew Brazen Akoya @ 8/1

 

8.30 Not a deep race and looks likely to be a battle between the two in form runners who are both effective over C&D in Tamaska and Key Word , who are both hold up types, drawn on opposite sides of the track , but there is pace across the track so neither should be inconvenienced but give the nod to the former with slightly stronger form at this trip .

¼ pt  win Tamaska @ 7/2

 

Newcastle placepot

5

5

4,5

1,7

1,4

4,5

16 bets

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